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Pacquiao-Marquez III: Close, Controversial Pacquiao Win

November 13, 2011 in Boxing, Sport

Does this look like the face of a winner?

Seems like some things will never change.  Few people believed that the old adage ‘styles make fights’ would apply every single time, but once again it prevailed tonight.

Despite what many expected would be a brutal annihilation, Manny Pacquiao just won a close, controversial majority decision over arch rival Juan Manuel Marquez (114-114, 115-113, 116-112).

Plenty of people thought Marquez won the first two fights, in 2004 and 2008, and the same will be said for fight number three.  I’ve only watched the fight once, but I had it a 114-114 draw.  However, I cannot begrudge anyone for thinking this was a 115-114, 115-113 or 116-114 fight in Marquez’s favour.  In fact, when I heard the scores being announced, I had a feeling that perhaps an upset was written in the stars.

Honestly, it was that difficult to score.  Several boxing analysts on ESPN had it a draw.  Some had Pacquiao winning by one round.  Others said it was another robbery.  Certainly, from the boos that showered the ring immediately after the decision was announced and Marquez left the ring in disgust (in fact, objects were being showered too), it appears many ringsiders felt the same.  I was also just on the ESPN message board and the overwhelming sentiment is that Pacquiao should have lost.  Not sure if it is just the anti-Pacquiao or pro-Mayweather trolls but it is what it is.

I watched the fight via online streaming, and it was commentated by a British station which featured Pacquiao stablemate Amir Khan.  Interestingly, they had Marquez winning the fight, and winning it easily, and Khan even said before the decision was announced that he’d be open to fighting Marquez if Pacquiao loses.  I’d be very fascinated to see how the commentators from other stations called the fight (apparently Harold Lederman from HBO had it 116-112 for Pacquiao).

If you have watched the fight with the commentary on, I suggest watching it again without any commentary — because they tend to be very misleading.  Watch the fight without the views and opinions of others and decide for yourself.  Did Pacquiao earn the victory or was Marquez robbed (again)?

Fight analysis

Pacquiao weighed 143 and Marquez weighed142 at the weigh-in the day before.  Both were under the catch weight limit of 144 pounds.  Marquez looked huge, at least as big as Pacquiao, and in contrast with his fight against Mayweather, his midsection was much more taut.  Pacquiao, as usual, looked ripped and fantastic.

Unlike the previous two fights, this one was more technical and more of a chess match.  No knockdowns but still a brilliant and exciting fight from start to finish.

To be fair, Pacquiao did look a lot more cautious in the earlier rounds and he appeared utterly confused at times.  He simply didn’t know how to solve Marquez’s style.  He didn’t throw as many combinations as I thought he would, or perhaps it was Marquez’s counterpunching that discouraged him from doing so.

Marquez, to his credit, bulked up successfully this time and fought using a perfect game plan.  He stood his ground, throwing jabs and rapid combinations to unsettle Pacquaio, and when Pacquiao unloaded a shot Marquez simply took a step back to get out of range, and then immediately followed with a counter combination in return.  He also threw some hard body combos, especially earlier in the fight.

To the casual observer it might appear as though Marquez was the more successful fighter throughout, but Pacquiao, who was clearly the aggressor in the latter stages of the fight, did block a lot of the combos and landed a few hard shots of his own.

I gave the first round, a ‘feel-out’ round, to Pacquiao, who was more aggressive and landed the better shots.  From there, Marquez won most of the rounds up to the midway mark, prompting Freddie Roach to tell Pacquiao in between rounds that he was behind and had to pick it up.  Pacquiao listened to his trainer and increased his work rate, but Marquez still fought very efficiently.  Those second-half rounds became very hard to score, and even if most of them they went to Pacquiao they were still extremely close rounds.  I had the fight dead even at the end of round 10.  The last two rounds were practically a wash.  I had Pacquiao winning the 11th and Marquez the 12th, but they could have easily been the other way around (two of the three judges gave the last round to Pacquiao).

When the fight ended, Marquez raised an arm in victory, and Pacquiao retreated to his corner to pray.  Boxers in close fights always think they won, but upon seeing that scene I thought maybe Marquez did achieve the upset after all.  When the first score was announced, 114-114, I thought we were on our way to a majority draw.  I still thought it might end up a draw when they announced the second score, 115-113.  The third score, 116-112, raised an eyebrow.  The fight was too close to deserve that scoreline.

I think a draw would have been the right result, but I couldn’t fault judges for a 2-point swing in either direction.  Perhaps Pacquiao, with his reputation as the reigning champ and P4P king, had enough influence, subconscious or not, to pull the judges to rule in his favour.

Post-fight quotes

Marquez:

“This is the second robbery of the two that we had, and I think this was even more clear than the first.  We won with the clearer punches. The audience protested because they saw us win again. I thought I got robbed. It happens again and again. I don’t know what else I can do to win.”

“It’s hard when you’re fighting your rival and the three judges, too.”

Nacho Beristain (Marquez’s trainer):

“I’ve always confided in this commission here, but this has been a robbery in the utmost.”

Pacquiao:

“The fans of Marquez, of course, aren’t happy, but my fans are happy.  I clearly won the fight. He is a good fighter, but I do my best. It is very clear that I won the fight.”

“He was ready for my punches.  I thought I blocked a lot of his punches.”

Re Mayweather: ”Anytime, anytime, I am a fighter. My job is to fight.”

“Let’s get it on,  Let’s make the fight happen and give the people a good fight.”

Freddie Roach (Pacquiao’s trainer):

“It was a very close fight. It could have gone either way.  I asked Manny to move to the right and he didn’t.”

Punch stats

Those suggesting a robbery might want to take a look at the punch stats.  Of course, they are not fully accurate and are open to interpretation, but according to Compubox Pacquiao landed 176/578 punches (30%), while Marquez landed 138/436 (32%).

Pacquiao also had the edge in power punches, 117/274 (43%) to 100/254 (39%).

Per round, Pacquiao averaged 14 of 49 punches, Marquez averaged 11 of 36.

Not to say that this is proof of a Pacquiao victory, because it is not, but it does add weight to the suggestion that this was a close fight that could have gone either way.

Where to from here?

Bob Arum, Pacquiao’s promoter (and Marquez’s promoter for this one fight) has suggested a fourth fight between the two in May to decide once and for all who is the better fighter.  I dunno.  I thought this fight would be it.  They could fight 100 times and the result might be the same every time.

I say let Pacquiao fight someone else (ah hem, MAYWEATHER — who must have loved the result and might finally be willing to take the fight now given how it turned out) and regardless of whether he wins or loses, and if Marquez is willing, let their fourth fight be the last of Pacquiao’s career and let him ride off into the sunset.

Mayweather recently announced through a spokesperson that his next fight is in May, and they alluded to the ‘little fella’ as his next opponent, which everyone assumes is Pacquiao.

As for the drug testing problems that have derailed two prior negotiations?  Both Pacquiao and Arum have said it is not a problem anymore.  Pacquiao is now willing to be subjected to Olympic style blood testing (ie random up to the date of the fight), and the only problem was that Mayweather allegedly had an issue with Pacquiao training overseas, as this would mean that two drug testing associations are required to carry out the tests (as the Philippines is out of the USADA’s jurisdiction).  But provided it is still Olympic style drug testing carried out by a credible testing body, it is hard to see this being the issue holding back potentially the most lucrative boxing match of all time.

So now we wait and see.  And hope.

PS: On paper, you may argue that Pacquiao has widened the gap.  The first fight was a draw, the second a split decision and now a majority decision…

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Fight Prediction: Pacquiao-Marquez III

November 10, 2011 in Boxing, Sport

Man, time flies.

Just three days from now on the 12th of November 2011, pound-for-pound king Manny Pacquiao will take on his nemesis (no, not Floyd Mayweather Jr), Mexican warrior Juan Manuel Marquez for the third time at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas.

As most boxing aficionados know, Pacquiao and Marquez had engaged in two previous wars back in 2004 and 2008, resulting in a controversial draw (115-110, 110-115, 113-113) and a narrow, but equally controversial split decision for Pacquiao (115-112, 112-115, 114-113).  Officially, the history books currently read 1-1-0 in favour of Pacquiao, but in those who have watched the fights know that it could very well have been the other way around.

This third contest will determine once and for all who is the superior boxer, and if Pacquiao wins, pave the way for a Mayweather superfight next year (Floyd has apparently circled 5 May 2012 on his calendar as the date, but no one is holding their breath given the number of false alarms over the years).

There are several reasons why Pacquiao is the overwhelming favourite this time despite how close the first two fights were.

1. Weight

The first fight was at featherweight (126 pounds) and the second fight was at super featherweight (130 pounds).  This third fight is at a catch weight of 144 pounds.  It is well documented that Pacquiao struggled with his weight management at those lighter weights, and as we know, Pacquiao has fought around welterweight for 5 out of his last 6 bouts (Hatton being the exception at junior welterweight), and not only is he undefeated at this weight, he has demolished all those before him.  Pacquiao has grown into a fully-fledged welterweight and it appears 144 might be his optimum weight (as he had to take extra protein to get above that in other fights).

On the other hand, Marquez has been a lightweight (135 pounds) since the second Pacquiao fight and has only ventured above that once — when he fought Floyd Mayweather Jr in 2009.  In that fight, the contract weight was also a catch weight of 144 pounds (later stretched to 146 as Mayweather failed to make weight), and Marquez struggled to boost his weight up to 142 pounds, looking a little flabby around the middle on fight night.  And as we saw on that night, Marquez was not very good at this unfamiliar weight, though it could be argued that it was Mayweather’s brilliance that made him look that way.

If the videos on HBO’s 24/7 shows can be trusted, Marquez has bulked up a lot more successfully this time and has allegedly managed to preserve his speed.  This makes things more interesting, but in any case, there is no question that at 144 pounds, the cards are stacked firmly on Pacquiao’s side.

2. Age:

Boxers are getting older and older these days, and Marquez turned 38 in August.  On the other hand, Pacquiao does not turn 33 until December.  Five years is significant, but what is more concerning for Marquez is that few fighters don’t start to see significant declines past the age of 35-36.  Marquez might be the exception to the rule, as he has looked very good in almost all his recent fights, including a recent first round KO in July against Likar Ramos (who probably took a dive, but nonetheless…).

Marquez has a style that ages well, but at 32 Pacquiao is clearly in his prime, whereas Marquez may have slowed by half a step since the last time the two touched gloves.

3: Improvement:

Some people don’t believe fighters at an elite level can improve significantly, but many agree that Pacquiao is a much better fighter now than when he last fought Marquez.  Better defense, more patient, less reckless, better at following Freddie Roach’s game plans, effective punching power in both hands (instead of just the left).  And at this higher weight, he appears to be more durable, has more stamina, more power, and is arguably faster than he was before.

As for Marquez, because of his age and perhaps because he has been in Pacquiao’s shadow the last few years, not many are suggesting that he has improved much, if at all.

If we assume Pacquiao and Marquez were dead even back in 2008, it’s not surprising that most are expecting Pacquiao to walk through Marquez this time given his supposed improvement and Marquez’s supposed lack of improvement.

Prediction

There are plenty of boxing fans and experts out there who genuinely believe that Marquez won both fights.  You can judge for yourself at ESPN, which is currently showing both fights in their entirety (I and II).  You may think that, despite the 3 knockdowns in the first fight and the single knockdown in fight two, Marquez has Pacquiao’s number stylistically and won both fights, but you cannot possibly say that the fights were not close.

Fact is, even if you watch the second fight immediately after the first, you should be able to see a noticeable improvement in Pacquiao’s abilities.  That was more than 3.5 years ago.  Then watch some of his more recent fights at welterweight, and the contrast in his style and physical appearance will be astounding.

Remember, the first fight was before Pacquiao lost to Erik Morales (whom he annihilated in two subsequent rematches) and the second fight was before Pacquiao delivered beatdowns to De La Hoya, Hatton, Cotto, Margarito and Mosley.  As good as Marquez is, do you see him beating any of those guys at 144 pounds?

Like most pundits, I find it difficult to believe that Marquez will have anything more than a puncher’s chance this third time.  Pacquiao proved that he is taking the fight seriously on 24/7, and his training camp is reportedly one of his best ever, with insiders saying that he has taken it to another level.  Unlike the crappy Mosley fight, Pacquiao has plenty of motivation and he has said as much.  On the other hand, Marquez remains confident because he honestly thinks he beat Pacquiao twice already — but will this confidence backfire when he realises that the person he faces on Saturday night is not the same guy he faced before (ie the guy that kept throwing right jab-left cross combos all night long)?

I see Marquez fighting valiantly and tagging Pacquiao with a few good shots, and maybe even steal few rounds here and there.  He is an extremely intelligent and crafty fighter who has shown he can figure out other fighters’ styles during a fight and historically has given Pacquiao fits.  But I also see the explosive Pacquiao hitting Marquez with a fair deal of big blows, and the added power at 144 pounds will likely lead to several knockdowns and perhaps even a cut or two.

Marquez has never been knocked out and I respect him too much to expect it to happen this time.  That is why I am predicting a wide and uncontroversial unanimous decision for Pacquiao.  It will be closer than some experts predicted and unlike the recent string of disappointing big name fights, this one will be action-packed from start to finish and a contender for fight of the year.  In the end, Pacquiao will win more rounds and coupled with the knockdowns, it will be a comfortable but hard fought victory and a fitting end to a marvellous trilogy.

Can’t wait!

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Mayweather KOs Ortiz in shocking fashion!

September 18, 2011 in Boxing, Sport

Al Bello/Getty Images

[Update: Analysis updated below]

I haven’t had a chance to watch the fight again, but what just happened was crazy.  Floyd Mayweather Jr just KOed Victor Ortiz in the fourth round of their WBC Welterweight title fight with a left-right combo many perceived to be cheap or even sucker punches.

Mayweather had won the first three rounds against Victor Ortiz  (at least two of the three, anyway), and towards the end of the fourth Ortiz finally put together a decent string of punches and pinned Mayweather in the corner.  Perhaps frustrated that he couldn’t do any serious damage, Ortiz launched an obvious and clearly illegal head butt at Mayweather, which led to a point deduction from referee Joe Cortez.

Ortiz apologised to Mayweather several times (including a hug and a kiss on the cheek) and the two ended up in the centre of the ring.  While Cortez was still talking to the ringside officials, Ortiz again went to Mayweather to touch gloves, and then went in and gave him a another little hug near the centre of the ring.  When Ortiz pulled back, Mayweather immediately assaulted him with a hard left, then added a punishing right hand that landed flush on Ortiz’s jaw.  Ortiz never saw the punch coming (he appeared to be looking at Cortez, or at the very least he was still trying to apologise), and neither did Cortez, who was still communicating with the ringside officials when both punches connected.  Nevertheless, Ortiz was struggled to get up and was counted out.

Boos showered the ring and in the post fight interview Mayweather refused to answer HBO interviewer Larry Merchant’s questions about the perceived cheap shot.  When pressed, Mayweather exploded into a tirade and said that HBO ought to fire Merchant.  He also said “you don’t know shit about boxing”, “you ain’t shit” and “you’re not shit” in Merchant’s face, before trying to turn away.  Merchant said he wished he were 50 years younger so he could kick Mayweather’s ass.

Perhaps even stranger than the KO itself and Mayweather’s reaction was Ortiz’s — he seemed kind of content about the whole thing, smiling, saying that one could look at it in two ways (ie, dirty or not dirty) and that it was a learning experience for him.

I will post more detailed thoughts on this after rewatching the fight, but my initial reaction is that Ortiz has no one to blame but himself.  He threw the head butt that landed put him in the predicament in the first place.  He was the one that tried to apologise too much AND dish out a hug, which was not necessary.  Cortez had re-engaged the boxers when the punches landed (even though he was still talking to ringside officials).  And they always say, “Protect yourself at all times.”  Was it a cheap shot?  Probably.  But it was legal.  However, from a publicity perspective, it can’t be good for Floyd’s already crumbling image.

More to come.  In the meantime, check out this YouTube replay of the KO while it still lasts.

[Update: as expected, the video has been taken down from YouTube]

Updated Analysis

Okay, I’ve now had time to watch a replay of the fight.

Ortiz was clearly the bigger guy (he was at the 147 limit at weigh-in but came into ring at 164, while Mayweather weighed 146.5 and came in at 150 — so a massive 14 pound difference!) but he didn’t really fight like one.  From the outset, Mayweather seemed like the sharper, more focused fighter, while Ortiz was more plodding and looking to land wild punches.

I wouldn’t say Mayweather ‘dominated’ the first two rounds but he did enough to win them in my book.  The straight right hand was his best punch and he connected them several times against Ortiz’s head.  The third round was a clear Mayweather round as he tagged Ortiz numerous times and evaded most of Ortiz’s big swings.  Ortiz never looked hurt or anything but he just didn’t appear to be on par with Mayweather either in terms of technical ability, speed or defense.

I was particularly amazed that Mayweather did not back away from Ortiz at all, and at times was even backing Ortiz up.  On the other hand, Ortiz didn’t try and impose his size on Mayweather like I thought he would, and he very rarely went to the body.

The fourth round was all Mayweather from the start, but Ortiz kept throwing and eventually landed a few of his own.  Mayweather shook his head as if to inform Ortiz that they didn’t hurt him.  Then, with about 20 seconds left in the round, Ortiz caught Mayweather with a good shot, which sent Mayweather retreating along the ropes.  Ortiz followed and pinned Mayweather in the corner but most of his power blows were either dodged or deflected.  Frustrated, Ortiz threw a silly (because it was so obvious) intentional head butt that cut Mayweather’s bottom lip.

Referee Joe Cortez stepped in and called time immediately.  While he tried to make a ruling Ortiz went up to Mayweather to apologise, hugging him and even pecking him on the cheek (not sure if the kiss connected though).  Cortez pulled Ortiz away and signalled a point deduction and said to him, “Don’t be doing that!”  Cortez could then be heard to say, “Let’s go,” and signalled time on, but he continued to look towards ringside as Ortiz and Mayweather made their way to the centre of the ring and Ortiz initiated a glove touch and another hug.

As Ortiz stepped back from the semi-embrace (Mayweather appeared to be pushing him a little), and while Cortez was still communicating with ringside, Mayweather threw a left hook that landed clean.  Ortiz may have been looking at Cortez when that hook landed, but he was definitely looking Cortez’s way when Mayweather followed up with a vicious right straight hand that knocked Ortiz off his feet and into the corner.

Cortez didn’t seem to process what had happened until Ortiz was already on the ground, but he proceeded to count anyway.  Ortiz never really looked like he was going to make it, and sure enough, the count reached 10 and the fight was officially over at 2:59 in the fourth round!

The crowd went nuts and there was confusion all round, including from the commentators.  Ortiz got up and sat down in the corner, and Floyd went over and the two exchanged words.  Ortiz smiled at whatever Mayweather said, completely unlike someone who just got KOed by two cheap shots.

Mayweather was announced the winner (now 42-0 with 26 KOs) and Larry Merchant entered to interview him.  The largely pro-Ortiz crowd (despite the fight being in Mayweather’s home town of Las Vegas), having seen the replay a couple of times by now, was booing loudly as Merchant asked Mayweather about the controversial ending.

Instead of answering the questions, Mayweather (who made $25+ million) said whatever he wanted, thanking God, thanking the audience and PPV customers.  They then watched the replay together and Mayweather said that fighters are supposed to protect themselves at all times, that it was not about what Ortiz did dirty or what he did dirty, and that if Ortiz wants a rematch he can have one.

The 80-year-old Merchant continued to press on, at which time an agitated Mayweather got into his face and said, “You never give me a fair shake…HBO needs to fire you!  You know shit about boxing!  You ain’t shit!  You’re not shit!”

Merchant responded with, “I wish I was 50 years younger and I’d kick your ass!”

(This really happened — I’m not making any of this up.  The funniest thing was watching Leonard Ellerbe, one of Floyd’s “yes men” who is clearly deeply in love with him, sticking his fat head in and adding comments like, “You heard him!”)

Floyd and his entourage left the interview, and a smiling Merchant turned to a smiling Ortiz (now 29-3-2), whose face was swelling up under the eyes.  Seriously, if I had just tuned in, I would have thought Ortiz had won the fight judging from the smile on his face.  He did not look like a man disappointed after a somewhat dodgy KO.

When questioned, Ortiz said it wasn’t his fault, the ref called a break and he did exactly as he was told, but when he looked up, “Boom!” and he was out.

Regarding the head butt, Ortiz made up some lame excuse about it not being intentional.  When they watched the KO again, Ortiz said, “It’s okay,” and when Merchant asked him what he thought of the controversial ending he said, “You could look at it two ways.  At the end of the day, you know what?  I came out here to show the fans a good time and as far as I’m concerned I think they did have a good time, except for that little miscommunication there by the ref.  But hey, it happens.  I’m not perfect, no one is, and neither is the ref.  So I have no one to blame for it.  It’s a learning experience.”

The public reaction has been mixed.  The anti-Mayweather fans labelled the KO punches cheap shots and sucker punchers and used it to back up their assertion that Mayweather is classless.  Everyone else agrees that it was a legal blow and it was Ortiz’s fault for not protecting himself at all times.

I’m far from a Floyd fan (I appreciate his ability though) but I have to agree with the sentiment of the latter.  Ortiz definitely did a stupid thing there with the intentional head butt, which clearly angered Floyd, who looked like he was ready to take his game up another notch.  You could see it in his eyes as soon as Cortez called time on.  Ortiz, perhaps still embarrassed by what he did (how else could you explain the excessive apologising?), left himself wide open, and Floyd took advantage.  It wasn’t classy but it was within the rules, and besides, Ortiz was the one that resorted to cheap tactics first.

Perhaps this later quote from Ortiz summed up how he felt.  ”I apologised to [Mayweather] after the fight as well.  It was in the heat of the moment.  In a sense, it was a payback.”

I have to say I’m disappointed in Ortiz (who came away with a cool $2+ million for 12 minutes of action)– not for the head butt, but for the way he reacted after the loss.  It was as though he had secretly expected it all along and it didn’t even sting to be KOed in that fashion.  Perhaps he knew he was being outclassed and thought that going out in this controversial manner was better than being pummelled for the rest of the fight.

Now, all we have to do is wait for Pacquiao vs Marquez III in November, and hopefully if Pacquiao wins we can start looking forward to Mayweather-Pacquiao in 2012.   According to Pacquiao in recent interviews, random blood testing is no longer an issue, so barring any unforeseen circumstances this fight will finally happen!

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Fight Prediction: Mayweather vs Ortiz

September 14, 2011 in Boxing, Sport

On September 17 in Las Vegas, undefeated 34-year-old Floyd Mayweather Jr (41-0,  25KOs) will return from a 16-month lay off take on 24-year-old southpaw brawler Victor Ortiz (29-2-2, 22KOs) for Ortiz’s WBC Welterweight belt.

Love him or hate him, you can’t deny that Floyd Mayweather Jr is entertaining.  Some would say more out of the ring than in it, though true fans of the sport can’t help but be in awe of his phenomenal ability.  And sure, Mayweather is not fighting the man everyone wants him to fight, Manny Pacquiao, but Victor Ortiz does make a very interesting ‘tune up’ for the Pacman — if the megafight is to finally take place next year as recent reports would suggest.

In the meantime, let’s not get ahead of ourselves.  Ortiz is a dangerous young opponent coming off a career reviving win against previously undefeated Andre Berto in April 2011 — his most satisfying win since being stopped by Marcos Maidana in 2009 where many believed a badly cut Ortiz had quit against his heavy-hitting opponent.  But does he stand a chance against someone in the class of Floyd Mayweather Jr?

Personally, I’m kind of torn here.  I’d love to see someone knock Mayweather off his pedestal, but at the same time that could spell the end of Mayweather-Pacquiao — and after all these years of waiting, that would be a monumental disappointment.

That said, the probability of Ortiz pulling off the upset is incredibly slim.  On paper, at least, or if you’ve ever watched the two men in action, Mayweather should punish Ortiz and give him a boxing lesson all night long.  Mayweather is simply too skilled, too slick, too fast, too experienced, and too defensively sound for someone as raw as Ortiz.  On top of that, Mayweather seldom gets hit flush, and when he does, he has survived and come back stronger.  His ability to adjust mid-fight is second to none.

But as the saying goes, anything can happen in boxing, and Ortiz at least appears to have the weapons and temperament to trouble Mayweather, whose form after 16 months off could potentially be a little off.

First of all, Ortiz is 10 years younger than Mayweather and, judging from his last fight, is in the form and shape of his life.  He’s like a caged animal that has been released after years in captivity and has this fearless attitude about him, like he just wants to tear through everyone in front of him.  His motivation and determination is through the roof right now.

Secondly, Ortiz is physically stronger than Mayweather and visibly bigger.  At 5’9″ he is an inch taller and has arms like tree trunks.  His thick body is also built like a brick house.  His punches can do serious damage and it looks like he’ll be able to take a punch much better than he used to.

Thirdly, Ortiz may not be as fast as Mayweather but he does have decent speed.  I’m not sure if it’s enough to bother Mayweather but it could be a significant factor in the fight if Mayweather underestimates it.

Fourthly, Ortiz is a southpaw, and we’ve all heard about Floyd’s troubles with southpaws throughout the years (Corley, Judah, etc).  The conventional response to that assertion is that Floyd has beaten every southpaw he has faced, but it must give Ortiz encouragement that Floyd has more difficulty with southpaws than orthodox fighters, primarily because his celebrated shoulder roll technique doesn’t work as well against southpaws.  It has to count for something, right?

Another thing Floyd is said to have problems with is a strong, stiff jab, which Ortiz also has.  He just has to learn to utilise it consistently throughout the fight.

On the flip side, Mayweather has not fought for 16 months, not since his May 2010 fight against Sugar Shane Mosley which he dominated after a major scare in round 2 where Mosley rocked him with a couple of big right hands.  Before that, Mayweather dominated Pacquiao’s next opponent, Juan Manuel Marquez, in September 2009.  And before that, a KO against Ricky Hatton in December 2007.  That’s three opponents in 45 months!  Yes, Mayweather won all those fights, but the inactivity, combined with his age (34) could come back to bite him in a hurry.

Mayweather also has brittle hands and hasn’t shown genuine KO power for quite some time, which could allow Ortiz to walk through some punches in order to land his own.  And if he does, will Mayweather be able to withstand the onslaught?  As the fight against Mosley suggested, if a big power shot lands in the right place, Mayweather can be hurt.

Lastly, there’s the distractions.  We all know about the Mayweather family’s legal troubles, and now the first episode of the Mayweather-Ortiz 24/7 series (one of the best yet, by the way) has revealed another rift between father and son.  Junior insists it doesn’t bother him at all, but his face suggests a different story.

Do all of these things add up to an upset in the cards?  Possible, but unlikely.  I’d put Ortiz’s chances of pulling off the improbable win at around 10-15%, and he’ll most probably have to do it via a stunning knockout.  He’ll have to be aggressive but patient, use that stiff jab of his to control the pace and pounce on Mayweather and not give him a chance to dictate.  If Ortiz goes in looking to brawl his way to a win he’ll become the perfect target for Mayweather’s counters.  If he remains disciplined and uses controlled aggression he could shock the world.

The more likely scenario is one where Ortiz comes out with guns blazing, takes it to Mayweather in the first couple of rounds, maybe even win them…before Mayweather figures out Ortiz’s style and schools him the rest of the way en route to a clear unanimous victory or even a late round KO.  I am still suspicious of Mayweather’s power at this stage of his career so I am going to predict a comfortable Mayweather UD.

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Big Sports Day: Klitschko beats Haye, Djoker beats Rafa, I exercise

July 4, 2011 in Boxing, Entertainment, Misc, Sport, Tennis

Djokovic eats some grass after winning Wimbledon

Yesterday was a big sports day for me.  The biggest heavyweight boxing match in years, Wladimir Klitschko vs David Haye, took place in Germany, while the biggest tennis match of the year, the men’s Wimbledon final between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, took place in England.  I even played some casual basketball (club game cancelled) and went for a walk.  Big sports day for all of us.

(click on ‘more’ for random thoughts)

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